By Daoud Kuttab

As the kidnapping disappearance of three young Israeli settlers enters its first week without any trace of them, politics, repercussions and reactions have begun to take center stage. How will it affect the nearly dead peace process? How will it affect the internal debate in Israel? How will it influence Palestinian politics and scheduled elections?

The big mystery that stands to sway a number of answers to these questions is the identity of the kidnappers. There are at least two theories. The more likely scenario is that the operation was carried out by a small, well-organized and tight-knit group not directly connected to any of the well-known Palestinian factions. The prospect that renegade or unorganized groups might become more effective has been a worry for Israel, which has succeeded in subduing the major Palestinian factions, but is well-aware of the high level of discontent among Palestinians. To put this issue in perspective, it helps to know that the operation that ended in the kidnapping of the Israeli soldier Gilad Shalit was not carried out exclusively by Hamas, although it later was able to lay claim to and benefit from it.

From a political perspective, it is difficult to imagine in the post-Palestinian reconciliation period that Hamas’ political bureau would approve such an operation, knowing that it would bring pain to the movement and its leadership. If Hamas had any desire to be involved in such a high-profile act, it is unlikely it would have accepted a reconciliation deal largely on the terms of the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) and Mahmoud Abbas. Hamas has publicly denied responsibility for the kidnapping, despite Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s unproven accusation that it is behind it.

On the other hand, it is possible that a renegade element within Hamas or its military wing, which is unhappy with the reconciliation effort, could have carried out such a daring operation to shuffle the cards and engage the movement.

Regardless of who is behind the kidnapping, the reality on the ground is that Israel is carrying out a full-court press, especially in the Hebron area. Soldiers are going house-to-house, and some residents are reporting abuse at the hands of the invading soldiers. Continue Reading »