Jul 16 2014
Conditions for a long-term ceasefire
Following appeared in the Jordan Times Newspaper
In violent conflicts, parties to the conflict are always under pressure to cease fire. Ceasefire agreements tend to have different formats but there are two basic requirements that successful long-term ceasefires require.
The first is clear: a total cessation of all attacks using all forms of weapons and from and to all relative locations. But most people don’t realise that the most important part of an effective ceasefire agreement is usually the second part. Namely, the political conditions that are being offered to buttress and cement the cessation of hostilities.Â
The idea of both parties stopping attacks usually doesn’t hold for very long. There is always an element, usually political or logistic, that was the cause of hostilities and which the parties are adamant to try and address in order to justify to their own people why they participated in the violence in the first place.
Applying this theory to the current Israeli war on Gaza it is clear that the Israeli idea of mutual tahdiya (calm) is not a formula that will last very long.Â
The Palestinian side feels that they were wrongly accused of being behind the kidnapping of three Israelis in areas under Israel’s control in the West Bank. They, along with the entire population of Gaza and the rest of the world, also feel that the seven-year illegal and unauthorised land and sea siege of Gaza must come to an end. Continue Reading »